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Will The Pokémon Market Crash?

Now it seems like Pokémon cards are the gold standard in collecting trading cards going into 2021 and the thing is, population growth will always outpace the number of cards that the Pokémon company can produce each year.

Each month the company produces a certain number of cards per estimated sales and demand. They up it if need be like in 2021 because of scalpers and unforeseen circumstance, but this will not change the 30-year prices of these cards.

In 30 years the population in the world will grow and by default Pokémon will see a growth in fan base-if the past has shown us anything. The sets printed in 2020 will be extremely valuable because the number of people added to the population compared to the number of original prints and reprints of the 2020-2025 cards until they go out of print, won’t be close. There will always be a higher demand for the cards than cards available.

The Pokemon Company is smart. They’ve been popular for 25 years and even if that dies off a bit, these cards from the 1990s to the 2020s will always be valuable, IMO. The Pokemon Company prints them in order for that to be the case. They create their products to have significance over the generations.

Trends are bound to die, and Pokémon is no exception. Except Pokémon always seems to revive itself. Many individuals will contribute Pokémon’s current popularity to the value of a certain 1st edition Charizard and that is partially true. What isn’t being considered is the base that has nothing to do with trading cards. People who only play video games, they don’t care how much a charizard is worth.

Let’s check for things that contribute to rarity and value.

Destroyed cards, people monopolizing a certain card, cards still in sealed packs. And the most important factor, what someone wants and will do to get it.

The global population when Pokémon cards were originally released was around 5 billion. Today the global population is close to 8 billion. What does that mean? It means that the company will never produce the amount of cards needed to keep up with the growth of population. The rate of growth over a period of 20 years is more than the total amount of people on the entire earth in the year 1960.

https://bit.ly/3tPE2SO

The man who created Pokémon was personally invested and had a love for it that is unmatched. It shows in the product. It is because of that this is something I feel I will be able to collect my entire life and not waste my money.

Will the value of the cards drop? Absolutely. Do the price of stocks drop? Absolutely. Do stocks only go down? That’s where Pokémon is today, they are up there in the conversation with stocks when it come’s to investing. That is an amazing sign and a symbol that Pokémon is here to stay, imo. I’m not here to show you a year by year price guide. It’s obvious Pokémon card’s value has grown each year since their conception.

I am only here to share my opinion on the cards I love. Who will want to buy my chonkachu in the future? Someone who probably hasn’t been born yet.

With all this said aside, I don’t believe the market will crash. Pokémon cards will never be worth nothing.

Hopefully many of you feel the same. Do you think the cards printed in the 2010s through now will hold their value?

16 comments

  1. I think the cards will have some value. Mostly, the cards that I owe, will be most valuable and precious to me. I spent my hard earn money on those Pokémon cards. I still have yet to get my hands on a Chonkachu. We will see what the future holds for the newer generations.

  2. I think it is hard to quantify how valuable something is, because you need to specify how it holds value. I will always have sentimental value to my base set cards, and I can guarantee other people have that same feeling. That shared feeling helps make the monetary value go up as well. On the other hand, the newer sets have not had time to gain said sentimental value. That leads to them seeming “less valuable” in the here and now. If you give it a few years, the people going crazy over these new sets will gain sentimental value over these cards and the price for the rare ones will go up like the ones of our past.

    The weirdest part to me about it all is the cards that are REALLY good competitively do not necessarily cause the monetary value of the cards to go up. I think that good cards competitively SHOULD be more valuable as them being easy to obtain causes everyone to have the same cards and lessens the competition. I think the main reason you do not see cards that are good competitively cost more is the nostalgia factor. Everyone is trying to cash in on the nostalgia they felt holding that charizard, and want to feel it again, which drives the cost through the roof.

    Again, over time I see the value of todays cards going up, which makes now a perfect time to cash in on the ones people are selling for low prices. Eventually people will throw away / give away their cards and will want that nostalgia back, causing these new cards to be more expensive.

    1. I completely agree with everything you’ve said.

      These super rare cards just need the time to marinate and gain that value. The kids that can’t afford that shiny Charizard will most like want to buy it when they get their first full time job ten years from now.

      Also the cards that are great competitively should be worth more IMO, like the Vmax Coalossal is such a beast but you can get it for less than $20 while the pikachu from McDonald’s is holding steady at $40.

      1. Yep, it totally turns into what cards are available vs what are better in the competitive setting. Also, cards they know aren’t going into sales anymore skyrocket because they will not be available anymore.

    2. I think Pokémon will stick around for a while as well, however I do think that card value is at an all time high and it probably won’t get this high again at least for a while. I’ve thought about selling some of my cards during this time, but most of them I just can’t seem to want to let to haha

  3. The reality is that if most of us that are collecting, playing, and enjoying Pokémon many years after noticing it for the first time will probably continue to enjoy it for many years to come. And introduce our kids, and support the growing community of Pokefans in the coming years.

    Nostalgia is a powerful emotion, and markets swing with emotions. One thing that won’t change, is that people will want Pokémon if they can get their hands on something years down the road.

  4. Maybe my future son will buy your chonkachu. Who knows? lol
    I think that psa shining fates cards will be in high demand because it’s kind of the set that Pokémon started trying to keep up with demand. Most of the cards are HEINOUSLY off centered, making it hard to get a good grade. Hopefully Pokémon doesn’t die. Maybe it will be a bigger part of the world in the future and I will be able to say I was there nearly from the start.

  5. I think the non-vintage and non-modern sets will keep going up and up in value. Look at XY evolutions, yes it has vintage nostalgia but all the sets around it are going up as well. As these sets go up and out of monetary reach, people will reach for other less popular (at least when they came out originally, see Steam Siege) sets for more collecting. Good content, thank you!

    1. Totally agree! A lot of people can’t afford base set 1st editions so they go for the lesser known sets like gym heroes, etc and that will eventfully boost in value because of it.

  6. Yeah, I totally agree with you! The prices of the Pokémon cards will change, mostly lower price for more modern sets and the price will continue to gradually increase in vintage cards. But I don’t think Pokémon cards will ever crash.

  7. Yeah, I have to agree. There will be ups and downs but I don’t see it crashing to nothing. I can see some sections of the cards dip much lower though.

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